Investing in emerging markets has long been viewed as a double-edged sword. On one side lies the promise of rapid growth, demographic tailwinds, and untapped potential. On the other, there’s volatility, political instability, and currency risk. As we step deeper into 2025, with global markets in flux and developed economies facing slower growth, the question re-emerges: is now the right time to turn—or return—to emerging markets?
For retail investors who’ve grown wary of expensive valuations in the U.S. or sluggish economies in Europe, emerging markets (EM) offer a compelling, albeit complex, opportunity. But making this play requires more than just chasing past performance or looking at headline GDP projections. Let’s unpack the dynamics shaping EM investing this year and whether it makes sense for your portfolio.
Perché i mercati emergenti sono tornati sul radar
One of the main drivers pulling investor interest toward emerging markets in 2025 is the relative valuation gap. While the S&P 500 continues to trade at a forward P/E ratio above 20, many emerging market indices—like the MSCI Emerging Markets Index—hover around 12–13x forward earnings. For long-term investors seeking value, that’s an eye-catching discount.
Allo stesso tempo, la crescita economica globale è sempre più alimentata dai Paesi EM. L'India, ad esempio, dovrebbe crescere di oltre 6,5% quest'anno, superando la maggior parte delle principali economie. Paesi come il Vietnam, l'Indonesia e il Messico stanno beneficiando delle tendenze di nearshoring e dello spostamento delle catene di fornitura, mentre le aziende occidentali cercano di ridurre la dipendenza dalla Cina. Anche il Brasile, a lungo un mercato volatile, ha stabilizzato l'inflazione e sta registrando un miglioramento degli afflussi di investimenti diretti esteri.
According to the IMF, emerging and developing economies are projected to contribute nearly 60% of global GDP growth in 2025. That’s a massive chunk of the economic pie—and investors are starting to pay attention.
Navigare tra i rischi che si nascondono sotto la superficie
Naturalmente, a una maggiore remunerazione corrisponde un maggiore rischio. I mercati emergenti sono ancora soggetti a instabilità politica, fluttuazioni valutarie e quadri istituzionali più deboli. Nel primo trimestre del 2025, la lira turca è scesa di 12% rispetto al dollaro a causa delle nuove preoccupazioni sull'indipendenza della banca centrale. Nel frattempo, le tensioni in America Latina hanno portato alla volatilità dei mercati obbligazionari e alla fuga degli investimenti in alcuni Paesi.
China remains the wildcard. Once the anchor of EM portfolios, it now represents both opportunity and uncertainty. After years of regulatory crackdowns and demographic slowdown, Beijing is shifting its tone to support growth and revive investor confidence—but skepticism lingers. Chinese equities remain down roughly 30% from their 2021 highs, but signs of stabilization have led some funds to cautiously reallocate.
Investors must also contend with a strong U.S. dollar, which historically dampens EM returns, especially in debt-heavy countries. However, if interest rates begin to soften in the second half of 2025—as many analysts expect—that pressure may ease, opening the door for capital inflows into EM assets.
Come affrontare gli investimenti EM nel 2025
Rather than taking an “all or nothing” stance, the smart move for retail investors is thoughtful allocation. That could mean dedicating 5–15% of your portfolio to emerging markets, depending on your risk tolerance and time horizon. Diversification is critical—no single country should dominate your EM exposure.
ETF come l'iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) o il Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) offrono un'ampia esposizione con commissioni relativamente basse. Per chi vuole approfondire, ci sono anche fondi mirati che si concentrano sull'India, sui mercati di frontiera o sulle società EM conformi agli standard ESG.
It’s also important to take a long-term view. Emerging markets don’t follow smooth growth curves—they often surge, stall, and rebound unpredictably. But history shows that those who stay invested through cycles are rewarded. Over the past 20 years, despite periods of underperformance, EM equities have delivered average annual returns comparable to developed markets—just with greater volatility.
Perché i mercati emergenti meritano ancora un posto a tavola
In un mondo in cui le economie sviluppate si trovano ad affrontare venti demografici, debiti crescenti e produttività stagnante, i mercati emergenti rappresentano l'altra faccia della storia globale. Sono più giovani, crescono più rapidamente e sono sempre più interconnessi con le catene di approvvigionamento globali e le economie digitali.
Investing in these regions in 2025 isn’t about chasing the next hot stock or trying to time a turnaround. It’s about understanding where the future of growth is coming from, and positioning your portfolio to benefit from it—gradually, wisely, and with a balanced perspective.
So, is it the right move? For those who can stomach the bumps, diversify properly, and stay patient, emerging markets could very well offer one of the most interesting opportunities of the decade. Not just as a speculative bet—but as a strategic piece of a globally minded investment strategy.
