When it comes to stock investing, most beginners—and even many experienced investors—ask the same question: how do I know if a stock is a good buy? The answer, unsurprisingly, isn’t one-size-fits-all. But two dominant frameworks can help you navigate the complex landscape of stock selection: the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach. Both methods offer unique perspectives, and understanding them could be the key to crafting a more informed, confident investment strategy.
Che cos'è l'analisi dei titoli Top-Down?
Top-down investing starts from the big picture and zooms in. Investors using this approach begin by analyzing macroeconomic indicators—such as global GDP growth, interest rates, inflation trends, and geopolitical stability. They then identify regions, industries, or sectors expected to benefit from those broader trends.
Ad esempio, con un'inflazione che si aggira ancora intorno al 2,5% nell'Eurozona e con i tassi di interesse globali che dovrebbero iniziare ad allentarsi alla fine del 2025, molti analisti puntano su settori ciclici come i beni di consumo discrezionali e gli industriali. Da qui, un investitore top-down selezionerebbe le società più forti all'interno di questi settori.
Gli investimenti top-down funzionano bene nei periodi di incertezza macroeconomica o nei punti di inflessione. Aiuta gli investitori a cavalcare grandi tendenze tematiche come la transizione verso l'energia verde, lo sviluppo dell'intelligenza artificiale o i cambiamenti demografici. Inoltre, tende ad allinearsi bene con le strategie passive come gli ETF tematici.
L'approccio dal basso verso l'alto: Prima l'azienda, poi l'economia
On the flip side, bottom-up investing is about diving into the fundamentals of individual companies, regardless of what’s happening in the broader economy. It emphasizes company-specific factors such as:
- Crescita dei ricavi e redditività
- Flusso di cassa e livelli di indebitamento
- Posizionamento competitivo
- Qualità della gestione e innovazione
In this approach, a stellar company is worth investing in even if its sector or the broader market is struggling. Take the case of ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment company. Despite broader concerns in the tech sector, ASML’s dominant market position and 40%+ gross margins made it a bottom-up favorite in recent years.
This method requires more detailed research but can yield alpha when the market underappreciates a company’s long-term growth potential. Warren Buffett, for instance, is a bottom-up investor through and through—focused on finding “wonderful companies at fair prices.”
Qual è il migliore?
La verità è che entrambi gli approcci hanno i loro meriti. L'approccio top-down è strategico e ampio, ideale per gli investitori tematici e macro. Il bottom-up è tattico e preciso, ideale per chi ama l'analisi delle aziende e il value investing.
Interestingly, professional fund managers often use a blend of both. According to a 2024 CFA Institute survey, 56% of institutional portfolio managers say they combine top-down macro views with bottom-up stock selection. This hybrid model allows investors to identify both the “right time” and the “right stock”—a powerful combination.
Un recente esempio di mercato: IA e semiconduttori
Let’s apply both approaches to a current trend—artificial intelligence. A top-down investor might recognize the AI boom as a global growth driver and choose to allocate capital to AI-focused ETFs or to the technology sector broadly. A bottom-up investor, instead, might dig into balance sheets and technical roadmaps of specific players like NVIDIA, AMD, or lesser-known European chipmakers like BE Semiconductor, identifying valuation opportunities.
In the past year, the MSCI World Information Technology Index returned around 25% (as of Q1 2025), fueled heavily by AI and cloud computing trends. But not all companies in the index benefited equally. That’s where bottom-up research separates winners from losers.
Trova la tua forma fisica
Investing is as much about self-awareness as it is about numbers. Are you more macro-oriented, intrigued by world events and economic cycles? Or do you enjoy dissecting a company’s financials and discovering hidden gems?
Start by trying both methods. If you’re new, begin with a top-down ETF strategy to gain exposure while studying bottom-up company analysis on the side. Tools like financial screeners (e.g., Finviz or Morningstar) and macro dashboards (e.g., Trading Economics or OECD data) can help streamline your process.
In the end, it’s not about choosing the “perfect” approach—it’s about developing a consistent process that fits your goals, timeline, and curiosity. The most successful investors aren’t always the ones who pick the best stocks—but those who stick to a strategy they understand and refine over time.
Padroneggiare il proprio metodo
Whether you zoom in or out, what matters is that you’re engaging actively with your investment process. As markets become more complex and dynamic in 2025, having a clear framework—top-down, bottom-up, or both—will help you stay grounded, informed, and ahead.
