{"id":49,"date":"2023-04-13T10:21:54","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T10:21:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/?p=49"},"modified":"2023-04-13T10:21:57","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T10:21:57","slug":"economy-slowdown-or-perfect-timing-to-rebalance-your-portfolio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/it\/economy-slowdown-or-perfect-timing-to-rebalance-your-portfolio\/","title":{"rendered":"Rallentamento dell'economia o tempismo perfetto per riequilibrare il portafoglio?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>L'economia statunitense ha iniziato il 2023 in modo positivo, con molti analisti che prevedono una crescita del PIL reale positiva per il 1\u00b0 trimestre del 2013. In vista del secondo trimestre del 2023, la forza del mercato quest'anno \u00e8 stata notevole. L'S&amp;P500 \u00e8 in rialzo di circa 6,5%, mentre il mercato delle obbligazioni investment-grade \u00e8 in rialzo di 4,5%. Tuttavia, i recenti guadagni dei titoli sono stati in gran parte guidati dall'espansione delle valutazioni, in quanto i rapporti prezzo\/utili sono aumentati. Nel frattempo, le aspettative di crescita degli utili in questo periodo si sono ridotte. Le previsioni degli analisti indicano ora che la crescita degli utili dello S&amp;P500 sar\u00e0 inferiore all'1,0% su base annua, rispetto alla stima di 5,0% di inizio anno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, since late March, the economic data have disappointed and are pointing toward waning momentum in the U.S. economy. As such, the Atlanta FED\u2019s GDPNow model is currently forecasting 1Q23 GDP growth of 1.5% (SAAR), down from its peak estimate of 3.5% in March. The path forward in the near term may be challenging, especially as the economy weakens and potentially enters a mild recession. This past week there have been signals of a pending slowdown emerging, including weakness in the labor market, manufacturing, and housing. And this comes as the banking sector looks to potentially tighten bank-lending standards, adding incremental downward pressure on consumers and corporations. Nonetheless, for long-term investors, there may be opportunities forming in the months ahead, particularly as markets start to look past the economic slowdown toward a recovery period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1004\" height=\"403\" src=\"http:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-50\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image.png 1004w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-768x308.png 768w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-810x325.png 810w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-700x281.png 700w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><em>Sources: J.P.Morgan Asset Management \u2013 Weekly Market Recap (10\/04\/2023)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La scorsa settimana, i PMI manifatturieri e dei servizi di marzo hanno fornito una lettura tempestiva delle prospettive di crescita. Il PMI manifatturiero \u00e8 sceso a 46,3, il valore pi\u00f9 basso da maggio 2020, a causa del calo dei nuovi ordini, delle scorte e dell'occupazione. Nel frattempo, il PMI dei servizi \u00e8 sceso a 51,2 ma \u00e8 rimasto al di sopra del livello chiave di 50, con nuovi ordini, attivit\u00e0 commerciale e prezzi in notevole calo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Attivit\u00e0 manifatturiera e dei servizi negli Stati Uniti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51\" width=\"439\" height=\"241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-1.png 1004w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-1-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-1-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-1-810x446.png 810w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-1-545x300.png 545w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 439px) 100vw, 439px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><em>Fonti: FactSet; Edward Jones<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding the labor market, according to the February JOLTS report, job openings fell 6% to 9.9 million but remain well above the pre-pandemic trend. Furthermore, while total nonfarm quits did increase 3.8% month-over-month, we have seen a general downward trend in quits since they peaked in late 2021. Meanwhile, Friday\u2019s employment report echoed a similar message. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, well below the long-term average of 6.2%. However, total nonfarm employment only grew by 236.000, a notable deceleration from the prior month, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% year-over-year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past weeks housing data came in softer than expected. The housing and rental components of inflation have remained elevated, although the real-time data indicate a housing market that has started to soften. Last week&#8217;s Case-Shiller national home price index saw moderating gains for seven straight months, coming in at 3.8% year-over-year, which has not been seen since the pre-pandemic period. Higher mortgage rates and cooling housing demand have weighed on the sector, which could also see further downside if mortgage-lending standards tighten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Prezzi delle case e tassi ipotecari<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52\" width=\"469\" height=\"239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-2.png 1004w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-2-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-2-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-2-810x413.png 810w, https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-2-588x300.png 588w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 469px) 100vw, 469px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><em>Fonti: FactSet; Edward Jones<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Guardare al futuro<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La questione sar\u00e0 se la FED interpreter\u00e0 questi dati come una prova significativa del raffreddamento dell'economia, mentre lotta per riportare l'inflazione al 2%. Questa determinazione detter\u00e0 il percorso futuro della politica monetaria, che come minimo potrebbe rimanere pi\u00f9 restrittiva di quanto il mercato si aspetti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lo scenario pi\u00f9 probabile rimane quello di una lieve recessione, forse a partire dalla met\u00e0 del 2023. La recente serie di dati economici sembra confermare questa visione, e un mercato del lavoro pi\u00f9 debole \u00e8 spesso una delle scarpe che cadono pi\u00f9 tardi. Per gli investitori, i mercati azionari probabilmente non ignoreranno un rallentamento dell'economia e i rischi a breve termine per il recente rally rimangono elevati. Ma crediamo anche che i mercati abbiano colto parte della recessione del mercato orso degli ultimi 15 mesi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In conclusione, ci sono buone notizie per gli investitori bilanciati, poich\u00e9 quest'anno i mercati obbligazionari hanno registrato buone performance, grazie al recente calo dei rendimenti e alla ricerca di beni rifugio. \u00c8 ragionevole aspettarsi che le obbligazioni continuino a svolgere questo ruolo di diversificazione anche nel prossimo anno, in particolare nei periodi di volatilit\u00e0 dei mercati azionari.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. economy started 2023 strongly, with many analysts tracking positive real GDP growth for 1Q23. Heading into the second quarter of 2023, the strength in the market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"WB4WB4WP_MODE":"","WB4WP_PAGE_SCRIPTS":"","WB4WP_PAGE_STYLES":"","WB4WP_PAGE_FONTS":"","WB4WP_PAGE_HEADER":"","WB4WP_PAGE_FOOTER":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economy slowdown or perfect timing to rebalance your portfolio? - DIY Investing Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/diyinvestinghub.com\/it\/economy-slowdown-or-perfect-timing-to-rebalance-your-portfolio\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economy slowdown or perfect timing to rebalance your portfolio? - DIY Investing Hub\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. economy started 2023 strongly, with many analysts tracking positive real GDP growth for 1Q23. 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