If you’ve been investing globally over the past decade, you’ve probably noticed a recurring trend: U.S. stocks tend to outperform their European, Asian, and emerging market counterparts. Whether it’s tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq or broad benchmarks like the S&P 500, U.S. equities have consistently led the global pack—often by a wide margin. The question many investors ask is: why? And more importantly, will this outperformance continue?
Let’s dive into the underlying reasons behind this persistent gap and assess what today’s global economic and financial environment tells us about what might come next.
I numeri raccontano la storia
Since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. equities have entered a dominant era. From 2010 to 2023, the S&P 500 delivered an average annual return of around 12.2%, compared to just 6.1% for the MSCI Europe Index and 4.3% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The difference is even more stark when compounded over time — € 10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 2010 would have grown to over € 41,000 by the end of 2023, while the same amount in emerging market equities would be worth less than half of that.
So what’s driving this performance divide?
Il premio per l'innovazione
Uno dei fattori che hanno maggiormente contribuito alla sovraperformance dell'azionario statunitense è la sua profonda esposizione ai settori a forte crescita e innovazione. Giganti del settore tecnologico come Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia e Alphabet sono diventati titani globali, dominando sia gli indici statunitensi che i mercati globali. Nel 2025, il settore tecnologico rappresentava oltre il 30% dell'S&P 500 in termini di capitalizzazione di mercato, rispetto a pesi molto più ridotti negli indici europei e asiatici, che sono ancora maggiormente orientati verso i settori finanziario, energetico e industriale.
This innovation bias translates into stronger earnings growth. Over the past 10 years, U.S. companies have consistently posted higher return on equity (ROE), stronger margins, and faster revenue growth than their international peers. Even through volatility—like the rate hikes of 2022 or inflation waves in 2023—U.S. firms adapted faster, with better cost structures and more scalable business models.
Ecosistema aziendale più forte e profondità del mercato
The U.S. also benefits from a uniquely favorable business environment. From access to capital and leading venture ecosystems to relatively flexible labor markets and a unified regulatory framework, it’s easier for American companies to scale and remain competitive globally. The U.S. capital markets are the deepest and most liquid in the world, attracting both domestic and international investors seeking safety, returns, and transparency.
Moreover, dollar dominance has played an outsized role. During periods of global stress—such as COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and rising inflation—the U.S. dollar tends to strengthen, reinforcing the perceived safety and stability of U.S.-based assets.
La relativa debolezza all'estero
In contrast, Europe and emerging markets have struggled with slower growth, fragmented policy frameworks, and higher exposure to cyclical industries. European equities are often tied to legacy industries and lack the concentration of hyper-growth companies seen in the U.S. The Eurozone has also faced repeated economic shocks—debt crises, energy supply instability, and sluggish productivity gains—which weigh on corporate earnings.
I mercati emergenti, pur offrendo un potenziale di crescita, spesso comportano un rischio politico più elevato, volatilità valutaria e imprevedibilità normativa. La Cina, un tempo astro nascente dei portafogli globali, ha registrato una significativa sottoperformance dal 2021 a causa di una combinazione di restrizioni normative, stress del mercato immobiliare e rallentamento della crescita del PIL. All'inizio del 2025, l'indice MSCI China è ancora in calo di quasi 30% rispetto al picco del 2021.
È un vantaggio permanente?
While the U.S. has held the lead for over a decade, no trend lasts forever. Valuations are now a key concern. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 hovers around 20–22x, well above its historical average, while many international markets—especially in Europe and Asia—trade at much more modest valuations, some even below 12x.
Questo divario di valutazione suggerisce che le azioni internazionali potrebbero essere pronte per una mean reversion, soprattutto se la crescita globale si stabilizzasse e l'inflazione si raffreddasse. Inoltre, l'aumento del nearshoring e dei blocchi commerciali regionali potrebbe iniziare a ridisegnare la mappa economica globale in modo tale da favorire i mercati non statunitensi.
Riequilibrio per una prospettiva più ampia
For retail investors, the takeaway is not to avoid international markets altogether but to understand why U.S. stocks have dominated and how global diversification still plays a crucial role. While the U.S. may continue to lead, holding exposure to undervalued international markets offers both diversification benefits and long-term opportunity—especially if policy support, demographics, or currency tailwinds shift the momentum.
As we look ahead to the rest of 2025, staying informed on earnings trends, sector leadership, and macroeconomic signals across regions can help investors maintain a balanced and resilient portfolio—one that isn’t just riding yesterday’s winners but is also positioned for what tomorrow might bring.
